How Data Experts Approach Lotteries: It’s Not What You Might Think

The odds of winning a lottery jackpot are famously remote. You’ll often see crazy comparisons to highlight the probability, such as having a greater chance of being hit by lightning or being eaten by a shark. But then again, most of us don’t want to be eaten by a shark, so playing a lottery – despite the odds – is something that gives many people something to dream about. And of course, as we know, some people strike it lucky.

There are, however, some who play the lottery tactically, including experts in math, probability, and data. It also takes a bit of research. For example, there was the case of a team of Princeton University students who won over $6 million with their system. The Bryan Cranston movie, Jerry and Marge Go Large, is also based on the real-life events of a group of people who hunted down lottery success tactically.

Expected Value Is the Key Term

As you might expect, the type of lottery matters, as does the jackpot, but it goes a little further than that. Moreover, there is no magic formula to guess the numbers. The tactics basically boil down to an expected value proposition, i.e., working out whether the ticket’s cost justifies the odds of winning a prize greater than its value. It does not always need to be a jackpot either.

Now, to be clear, these professionals will usually look at multiple lotteries. Lottery platforms like Jackpocket, for example, cover multiple drawings, not just headliners like the Powerball and Mega Millions. The pros might go further afield, visiting specific states to play if they can find a draw with the right conditions.

As mentioned, the key term is expected value (EV). Basically, it works like this. Let’s say, hypothetically, your lottery ticket costs $2, and once you have worked out all the probabilities of winning prizes, you can (in theory) work out that the ticket has an EV of $0.90.

However, if rollovers, roll downs, bonus pools, or jackpot caps push the prize pool high enough, the same $2 ticket might have an expected value of £2.20 or £3.00. At that point, in theory, it becomes a positive expected value bet. In short, under certain scenarios, the cost of your ticket is less than its value.

For clarity, events like roll downs are perhaps the biggest draw for these players. A roll down happens in some lotteries when the jackpot hasn’t been won for a long time. The organizers work out a system where the jackpot money is shared among the lower prize winners. That’s where the math starts to make sense.

Lotteries May Tweak Rules

Now, unfortunately, there is a bit of a caveat to this. Basically, some of the ‘flaws’ – for want of a better term – that were apparent in roll-down lotteries, including those that inspired the events of Jerry and Marge Go Large, have been addressed, making the EV more difficult to increase over the threshold of (almost) guaranteed profit. That said, some tactical players will only play roll-down draws, knowing that this gives them the best chance of success.

Of course, there are other tactics, too. Some people might tactically hunt scratchcards, for example, keeping track of published data that informs the buyer how many jackpots remain, especially when a run of scratchcards is coming to an end. In the end, you’ll still need a little luck whatever you do, but those who use tactics and data can perhaps bring the odds down a significant chunk, maybe even making it more likely to win the lottery than being eaten by a shark.